You certainly wouldn’t want your doctor or your investment manager to have such dreadful results when it comes to predictions in their field. But for some reason, we just look the other way when the “scientists” at NOAA predict the number of hurricanes we have every year. I know all the news services are all a twitter about Danielle because it could hit the east coast, giving the talking heads something to talk about.
What they are failing to tell you is that the doom and gloom predictions that NOAA made earlier in the year are not bearing fruit. Let’s recap what they said:
NOAA’s forecast predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. Named storms come with top winds of 39 mph or higher. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes, with winds in excess of 74 mph, and three to seven could be Category 3, 4 or 5 storms with winds of at least 111 mph.
“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.
Danielle is the the fourth named storm of the season. For NOAA predictions to come true, we would need 19 more storms between now and Nov. 1. And of those 19, three to seven need to be severe. Why is it that no one ever questions these guys about their failing predictions year in and year out. If our doctors were this bad, or our investment managers, we would fire them quicker than you can say “evacuate.” But no, everyone just nods their heads thinking that these guys are the “scientists.” Yet their ability to predict is terrible. Why give them any credit whatsoever? Why even ask them the question? They don’t know how many hurricanes there will be. They are just a clueless as the average guy on the street. We might as well asked kindergartners for their predictions. They might have better luck at it.
