Category Archives: Weather

NOAA “Scientist” Fail On Predictions

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You certainly wouldn’t want your doctor or your investment manager to have such dreadful results when it comes to predictions in their field. But for some reason, we just look the other way when the “scientists” at NOAA predict the number of hurricanes we have every year. I know all the news services are all a twitter about Danielle because it could hit the east coast, giving the talking heads something to talk about.

What they are failing to tell you is that the doom and gloom predictions that NOAA made earlier in the year are not bearing fruit. Let’s recap what they said:

NOAA’s forecast predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. Named storms come with top winds of 39 mph or higher. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes, with winds in excess of 74 mph, and three to seven could be Category 3, 4 or 5 storms with winds of at least 111 mph.

“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.

Danielle is the the fourth named storm of the season. For NOAA predictions to come true, we would need 19 more storms between now and Nov. 1. And of those 19, three to seven need to be severe. Why is it that no one ever questions these guys about their failing predictions year in and year out. If our doctors were this bad, or our investment managers, we would fire them quicker than you can say “evacuate.” But no, everyone just nods their heads thinking that these guys are the “scientists.” Yet their ability to predict is terrible. Why give them any credit whatsoever? Why even ask them the question? They don’t know how many hurricanes there will be. They are just a clueless as the average guy on the street. We might as well asked kindergartners for their predictions. They might have better luck at it.

Hiding From the Deluge

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Yes, hiding in the hall closet, with the entire family. It really sounded like a war zone for a while as the tornado sirens were going off and the thunder was booming across our neighborhood. It reminded me of the opening scene from the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe as they ran for the bomb shelter. We ran for the closet. The odd thing was that Elisa was the one that heard the sirens first. I’m usually the light sleeper. Thank goodness she heard it and got us moving towards the hall, and the closet. This is the same closet we got locked into last week when we couldn’t get the door open. We had to call the Jackson Police Department to come rescue us. We’ve since taken the door knob off so we don’t get locked inside again. We piled in at about 3 a.m. and wouldn’t go back to bed until 5 a.m.

Andy was scared. Joey fell asleep, and I had my ear glued to the radio in my cell phone so we could find out if a tornado had touched down or had been spotted. Not a single tornado in all three trips to the closet. But living in Jackson, TN, you don’t take the warnings lightly. This town has been hit three times in the last 15 years, the most recently in February 2008.We were not taking it lightly.

But tornadoes were not our problem during this storm. Flooding was our problem. We had 11 inches of rain in about 14 hours. The city was under a deluge and roads were being washed out all over the county. We had two streets develop sink holes within a quarter mile of our house. Roads were flooded and the grandfather of one member of our congregation had his mobile home float away down a stream. He was OK, but the mobile home was a complete loss.

The same family in our church also had their basement flooded. He is OK, but still pumping the water out today. We were able to get him a pump from our next door neighbor, who is one of those men who will give you the shirt off his back. He also has every tool known to man, or knows someone who does have it. What a blessing.

The interesting thing about this storm is that the MSM didn’t seem to understand how bad it was until it hit Nashville. Since that time, we’ve had a lot of family calling to check on us. The reality is that by the time it hit Nashville, the area was finally blessed with the storm moving on. We have sunshine today, but still there are roads that are closed as workers seek to repair them. I’m not sure if I-40 is opened yet, but I do know that it was closed in two locations due to the flooding. You know it’s bad when two sections of one of the busiest interstates in the country are closed.

The saddest part for me in all this was not having worship yesterday. The elders felt that it was two risky to have worship with some of the elderly in our congregation. We didn’t want them getting out and trying to get to church with the roads as they were. We were not the only ones the canceled service. Just about all the churches closed down along with some of the major restaurants. The public schools even shut down for the day. Hopefully we will get things back to normal as the week progresses. I hope that the storm will move quickly on and leave the rest of the country alone.

Just an update: Lexington and Medina are having to boil their water because of the water contamination problems with all the flooding. The governor is also flying over the area and will probably have it declared a disaster area.

Forecasts on Forecasters

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I think there should be a call for a new position in the world of meteorologists. We need the forecaster on the forecaster position. We all know how our forecasters, when it comes to the weather, love to paint doom-and-gloom pictures for the next day, saying things like, “we expect 3 to 4 inches of snow, even some thunder, along with cats and dogs sleeping together. Everyone should just stay home and off the streets.”

Then the forecaster gives a prediction: 90 percent chance of precipitation. The new guy would listen to Jolly-Fat-Forecaster Bob (you have to be jolly and fat to be famous, unless you are a female, then jolly and fat is ruled out!!!!!) and after Bob has given his prediction, he comes up with his own. His prediction is not on the weather, but on Bob. It would go something like this: “Well, given that Jolly-Fat Forecaster Bob is an egomaniac and loves to hear himself talk, I predict that Jolly-Fat Forecaster Bob, only has a 25 percent chance of being right.”

As time goes on, we keep stats on Fat Forecaster Bob in order to see how reliable he really is. After time, we would come to know what we all suspect, he is not very accurate when it comes to in-climate weather. Sure there are days and days where he is correct. But even I could predict the weather with accuracy on those days: “Tomorrow’s temperature will be around 98 degrees, with lots of humidity, and a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. The heat index will be a scaling 247 degrees, so drink lots of water.” That is a typical summer time forecast. Anyone can do that. But when it comes to really bad weather, the forecaster on forecasters kicks in so we really get a good grip on the predictions they are telling us.

This new position is in a sense, the stat man. We all love the stats in sports. This is how we judge how good a player really is. We even send players to the Hall of Fame based on their stats. Let’s do the same with weather forecasters. That way we will really get a grip on how good these guys are. As it stands now, we really don’t know because most of us forget how bad they were last year. O, we have a hunch. But stats will solidify those hunches and we won’t get fooled again!

Well, back downstairs to watch the boys. Elisa is sleep in today, and both boys are here. The forecasters gave us 2 to 5 inches of snow predictions yesterday, so all the schools were canceled. We’re still waiting on that snow!

6 AM Hail

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We awoke to the sound of thunder, followed by the sound of hail at about 6 a.m. this morning. At one point, it was so loud Elisa had me up and grabbing the boys just in case a tornado was to follow. Thankfully, it didn’t. But the hail was loud enough. I took the following pictures, and while they may be a bit blurry, you get the idea.

Of course, given the suddenness of this storm, Al Gore will be quick to say it’s the result of global warming. After all, we have NEVER had hail storms in May before. He would say, “this weather is unprecedented…” And all the GW morons would nod in agreement. See the NEW post below this one!



Tornado Season

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I found these photos as the Daily Mail. This being the supposed beginning of Tornado season, they had a feature on those who chase storms and offered the following pictures to boot. The pictures were taken by Mike Hollingshead and Eric Nguyen, who are storm chasers.

Storm chasers are named such because… they chase storms in the hopes of giving warning to those in the surrounding community. It was a storm chaser that saved so many lives in Wichita Falls in 1979 when that F-4 tornado ripped through the town, killing roughly 59 people.

One man who went through that tornado told me when he heard the sirens go off, he looked out his front door and didn’t see anything but a large cloud. He said he thought it was a false alarm until he saw the roof of a house slide up the side of the cloud.

He made a mistake that no one should make, but lived to tell about it. He loaded his family up in their 1976 Chevy Vega and tried to out run the tornado. At one point, as he traveled up Southwest Parkway in Wichita Falls, the tornado was so close it was lifting the back tires off the pavement.

He survived because he saw a traffic jam at one of the intersections, and turned through the K-Mart parking lot. Going over the curb ripped out the oil pan of the Vega, but he kept on going as long as he could. Because he made that turn, he survived. He had turned out of the path of the tornado.

Many of the people who died that day, died at that intersection.

You have to hand it to storm chasers. They are a bit nuts to do what they do, but those who live in tornado alley, are very grateful to them. In these pictures, you get a real sense of the power that such super cell storms can have.